Hi Clare, Thanks so much for speaking to Dr John Campbell and for writing your book. Your real expertise and analysis is much appreciated in these days of smoke and mirrors. I am an artist and have written on various issues, with a particular concern around big pharma and 'the drug connections', to health and social issues. I hope that you will find some time to wander over to my substack to see some of my paintings and photos and to read some of my 'rhyme and reason'.
Much love to you and your family & Happy Christmas! xxx
In case you haven't seen this yet, Excess Death Stats is an interesting site. It's a global campaign to bring public awareness to excess deaths.
So far they have covered Australia, New Zealand, Philippines, and Sweden. They are asking for volunteers from any country to help them collect the data.
'Retired engineer, Terry Anderson, who is a volunteer for this project, has signed an affidavit as an expert witness for a NZ court case, in which he examined this issue of cumulative excess deaths over the pandemic.
He believes that the Ministry of Health cherry-picked the approach used.
Furthermore, he says they selected a method that was fundamentally flawed, because it overestimated the number of expected deaths for a variety of reasons, including assuming immigration would continue as normal (despite borders being closed!)
“They have selected a method that gives a flattering result for cumulative excess mortality in New Zealand”, Terry says. When the Ministry of Health compared the actual numbers of deaths over the pandemic with their inflated expectation of normal deaths, it made their pandemic management look good.'
And
'To account for changes in population size, we’ve used the Stats NZ figures for death rates (deaths per thousand population) rather than the simple number of deaths.
Using this approach, the death rate in 2022 is 10.6% higher than the average death rate over the five years immediately preceding the pandemic (2015-2019).'
You hit the nail on the head. As I've been reporting for some time, NZ isolated its borders and the elderly were trapped in homes, where even a sniffle would prevent visitations. This eliminated the usual winter challenge to the vulnerable. If you use 2020 as a baseline you will see the dramatic increase in mortality rates, among the elderly vaccinated, beginning week 17 of 2021. I regard the OWID measurement as a poor indicator of excess death. The Economist method method, which is the chart you present, is a little more realistic than the Karlinsky and Kobac model, but it still relies on regression fitting of pre-pandemic years, when winter challenge led to 1200-1500 additional deaths per annum. Regression modeling is a crude method, as it fails to account for the harvest effect, plateauing of population growth and the slope and intercept of the line depends on which years you include, or exclude. The STMF model, used at the HMD is better because it allows for negative slopes in summer weeks. I actually prefer using regression based on mortality rates rather that crude death counts; OWID methods use the latter.
The Kabunsky and Kobac method, used for the OWID in one of their presentations, is completely inappropriate for NZ . I did my own take down of it in a court case submission, which was used by Professor John Gibson to produce the following.
"is it really bucking the trend?" seems to imply that increased excess mortality is a recognized trend.
but then the argument is made that excess mortality is subjective, so maybe nz isn't really bucking the trend. however, doesn't that also call into question the entire basis of the assumed "trend"?
if excess death calculations are subjective, then take them ALL with a grain of salt, not just the ones that don't fit how you expect things to be.
"How the German Federal Statistical Office has distorted excess mortality figures"
Destatis identified conspicuous excess mortality early in the pandemic but after the vaccination campaign saw nothing unusual. However, a look at the raw data shows the opposite: historically low mortality in 2020 and significantly increased deaths figures in the following two years. Particularly controversial are the high number of deaths among younger and middle-aged groups since 2021 - about which the authorities have remained silent to this day.
One remark. If the long-term trend has a different slope than the short-term trend, this can also mean a true trend along a curved line. This can be observed in many countries, probably because people cannot increase their life expectancy indefinitely due to their biological conditions. In actuarial projections, it is therefore common to fit the long-term development of mortality risks with exp() or atan() functions.
I completely agree with you that the assumption of any linear development is subjective and prone to error. Theoretically, a short-term reference epoch would achieve the lowest error for smooth trends, but mortality rates are not suitable for this because they fluctuate too much.
For Germany, it can be said that mortality trends in 2023 have so far been fairly normal overall. Only people under the age of 60 showed slightly higher mortality risks in the first half of the year.
Is this the leaked data that SK touted as bombshell, presented at MIT Nov 30, even quoting Dr. Fenton as agreeing with him in some fashion? I was there and wasn't impressed with what he showed.
“The big question is why deaths were so low in 2020 and 2021.”
Data fraud
Hi Clare, Thanks so much for speaking to Dr John Campbell and for writing your book. Your real expertise and analysis is much appreciated in these days of smoke and mirrors. I am an artist and have written on various issues, with a particular concern around big pharma and 'the drug connections', to health and social issues. I hope that you will find some time to wander over to my substack to see some of my paintings and photos and to read some of my 'rhyme and reason'.
Much love to you and your family & Happy Christmas! xxx
In case you haven't seen this yet, Excess Death Stats is an interesting site. It's a global campaign to bring public awareness to excess deaths.
So far they have covered Australia, New Zealand, Philippines, and Sweden. They are asking for volunteers from any country to help them collect the data.
Here is their NZ page. https://www.excessdeathstats.com/nz/
From that page:
'Retired engineer, Terry Anderson, who is a volunteer for this project, has signed an affidavit as an expert witness for a NZ court case, in which he examined this issue of cumulative excess deaths over the pandemic.
He believes that the Ministry of Health cherry-picked the approach used.
Furthermore, he says they selected a method that was fundamentally flawed, because it overestimated the number of expected deaths for a variety of reasons, including assuming immigration would continue as normal (despite borders being closed!)
“They have selected a method that gives a flattering result for cumulative excess mortality in New Zealand”, Terry says. When the Ministry of Health compared the actual numbers of deaths over the pandemic with their inflated expectation of normal deaths, it made their pandemic management look good.'
And
'To account for changes in population size, we’ve used the Stats NZ figures for death rates (deaths per thousand population) rather than the simple number of deaths.
Using this approach, the death rate in 2022 is 10.6% higher than the average death rate over the five years immediately preceding the pandemic (2015-2019).'
I've listed the following links for convenience:
For NZ Crude Death Rates: https://infoshare.stats.govt.nz/
NZ Deaths: https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/births-and-deaths/
Clare, please investigate the variable "E-Cigarettes.”
🚨🚨ONE OF THE BIGGEST BOMBSHELLS 🚨🚨
https://manuherold.substack.com/p/bombshell-the-recent-uptick-in-vaping
You hit the nail on the head. As I've been reporting for some time, NZ isolated its borders and the elderly were trapped in homes, where even a sniffle would prevent visitations. This eliminated the usual winter challenge to the vulnerable. If you use 2020 as a baseline you will see the dramatic increase in mortality rates, among the elderly vaccinated, beginning week 17 of 2021. I regard the OWID measurement as a poor indicator of excess death. The Economist method method, which is the chart you present, is a little more realistic than the Karlinsky and Kobac model, but it still relies on regression fitting of pre-pandemic years, when winter challenge led to 1200-1500 additional deaths per annum. Regression modeling is a crude method, as it fails to account for the harvest effect, plateauing of population growth and the slope and intercept of the line depends on which years you include, or exclude. The STMF model, used at the HMD is better because it allows for negative slopes in summer weeks. I actually prefer using regression based on mortality rates rather that crude death counts; OWID methods use the latter.
I have had 4 Pfizer jabs . The last on 13 April 2022 Comirnaty COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine 30micrograms/0.3ml dose concentrate .
What I am trying to find out is the damnable stuff now gone from my cells / body?
The Kabunsky and Kobac method, used for the OWID in one of their presentations, is completely inappropriate for NZ . I did my own take down of it in a court case submission, which was used by Professor John Gibson to produce the following.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00779954.2024.2314770
"is it really bucking the trend?" seems to imply that increased excess mortality is a recognized trend.
but then the argument is made that excess mortality is subjective, so maybe nz isn't really bucking the trend. however, doesn't that also call into question the entire basis of the assumed "trend"?
if excess death calculations are subjective, then take them ALL with a grain of salt, not just the ones that don't fit how you expect things to be.
I've translated a good piece by German data analyst Marcel Barz on German excess deaths:
https://lostintranslations.substack.com/p/statistical-distortions
"How the German Federal Statistical Office has distorted excess mortality figures"
Destatis identified conspicuous excess mortality early in the pandemic but after the vaccination campaign saw nothing unusual. However, a look at the raw data shows the opposite: historically low mortality in 2020 and significantly increased deaths figures in the following two years. Particularly controversial are the high number of deaths among younger and middle-aged groups since 2021 - about which the authorities have remained silent to this day.
In NZ, deaths were low in 2020/2021 because of lockdowns. We had no flu season, next to no covid, and no jabs during 2020 & early 2021. (Jabs for elderly began in March 21). See these articles: https://flagnfix.substack.com/p/excess-deaths-and-the-who and https://hatchardreport.com/when-worlds-collide/ Also watch this video by Grant Dixon https://www.bitchute.com/video/dASUoQ92PTbD/ 'Government and university data combine to show a strong co-relation between New Zealand's vaccine roll-out and excess all causes deaths.'
One remark. If the long-term trend has a different slope than the short-term trend, this can also mean a true trend along a curved line. This can be observed in many countries, probably because people cannot increase their life expectancy indefinitely due to their biological conditions. In actuarial projections, it is therefore common to fit the long-term development of mortality risks with exp() or atan() functions.
I completely agree with you that the assumption of any linear development is subjective and prone to error. Theoretically, a short-term reference epoch would achieve the lowest error for smooth trends, but mortality rates are not suitable for this because they fluctuate too much.
For Germany, it can be said that mortality trends in 2023 have so far been fairly normal overall. Only people under the age of 60 showed slightly higher mortality risks in the first half of the year.
Is this the leaked data that SK touted as bombshell, presented at MIT Nov 30, even quoting Dr. Fenton as agreeing with him in some fashion? I was there and wasn't impressed with what he showed.
Clare check out this substack from 'Aussie17' - https://www.aussie17.com/p/startling-surge-in-deaths-of-new. There appears to be some evidence of data tampering by the NZ authorities.