I am trying to work on US mortality rates but have come up against real problems in the CDC data.
The problem is in their population estimates. The CDC have changed definitions and adjusted the population figures through models.
From 1999 to 2009 a cohort of babies could be followed through as they aged. If one cohort had more girls that would be seen in the one year olds a year later and the two year olds a year after that.
After 2009, it becomes anyone’s guess.
It is particularly stunning for the population of black / african americans.
Here it is for the white cohort.
It is too hard to do for other races because of constant changes of definitions.
Of course some of this might be migration effects. For the sake of public health the CDC need to publish data for those born in the USA separately to the whole population. Only the former can approach being a measurement and without measurements public health signals become anyone’s guess.
Models imply laziness...and over-reliance on AI...Could the obfuscation be deliberate..?
The government loves modeling. They can play with the variables until they get the results they want or hide what they don’t want you to know.