The Aramancm (or Ferguson) Fallacy
The dangers of imagined benefits
As president of the Ford Motor Company Robert McNamara relentlessly pursued data measurement to optimise processes. During the Vietnam War he was U.S. Secretary of Defense. Despite the inevitable chaos of the guerilla war, he focused again on easily measurable data – body counts, bombs dropped, ships intercepted, and miles of land 'controlled'. In his single-minded focus on tangible data, he neglected less tangible but equally vital factors – morale among the troops and American public, the Viet Cong's determination, and the Vietnamese people's attitude. This dark data was denied by McNamara with disastrous outcomes.
Sociologist Daniel Yankelovitch later defined this approach as the “McNamara Fallacy,” breaking it down into four stages:
Measure whatever can be easily measured. This is OK as far as it goes.
Disregard that which can’t be easily measured or give it an arbitrary quantitative value. This is artificial and misleading.
Presume that what can’t be measured easily really isn’t important. This is blindness.
Say that what can’t be easily measured really doesn’t exist. This is suicide.
The Aramancm Fallacy is a reversal of this logic, applied to imagined benefits rather than ignored risks. Here, the unknown isn’t ignored but instead fabricated, creating a false sense of certainty. The progression is similar:
Measure whatever can be easily quantified. This is OK as far as it goes.
Invent what can’t be measured or assign it arbitrary values. This is artificial and misleading.
Presume that what is difficult to measure has been accurately estimated. This is delusional.
Use these assumptions as the basis for sweeping extrapolations, treating them as highly reliable. This is catastrophic.
The fallacy of invented benefits was clear in terms of the modelling for covid and the modelling of vaccine benefits. In both cases there was a total disconnection from reality and in both cases an utter lack of honesty about the levels of uncertainty and the huge and illogical assumptions leading to wild extrapolations with catastrophic results.
I come from the holistic medical world. People like me have always been isolated hubs trying to spread the message of looking at the big picture. Now, we are not so isolated since people like you came onto the scene with your superb and relevant skills in describing the bigger picture – and doing it in a comprehensive but concise manner. Thank you for advocating for the voiceless but harmed.
Very good - thanks Clare. Another aspect of the McNamaran fallacy is that the drive towards these unsuitable secondary targets creates the fertile ground for these catastrophe, some of which then manifest themselves as unspeakable atrocities, as moral compasses malfunction. The My Lai massacre in 1968 is a terrible example of this.